Splunk: Leading Observability Platform At A Bargain

AleksandarNakic

Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLK) has made significant improvements to its platform, rewriting it to be cloud-native and strengthening its position in the Observability sector. The company's revenue growth is becoming more consistent after a period of transformation, which remains a catalyst for growth. Additionally, as revenue growth stabilizes, the company is likely to see operating margins expand due to higher cloud gross margins and new measures to cut costs.

SPLK Investor Relations

Splunk reported better-than-expected results for the quarter, surpassing guidance and consensus estimates. Despite a challenging macro environment, the company demonstrated consistent execution. The operational leverage in the business model was a highlight, as the company achieved solid operating margin and free cash flow performance. This was likely supported by strong license revenue, which tends to have higher margins. Annual Recurring Revenue grew 16% year-over-year, with cloud ARR growing by 29%, both slightly exceeding consensus expectations by less than 1%. However, net-new ARR experienced a 43% decline compared to the previous year, while net-new cloud ARR declined by 46%. The management on the call noted that 20% of the net-new ARR came from new customers. Splunk indicated that customers were delaying cloud migrations and expansions, consistent with recent quarters. The company plans to invest in the international market, seeing ample opportunities for growth. Overall, Splunk is managing well in a challenging macro environment, and the improved free cash flow profile is encouraging.

Splunk offers a Security and Observability platform with a wide range of capabilities. The management believes that they can seize a market opportunity worth $100 billion, comprising three key components: the Splunk Platform for search, analytics and data management, Splunk Security, and Splunk Observability. According to Gartner's Magic Quadrant Analysis for the SIEM market, Splunk was placed in the Leaders Quadrant in 2022. Moreover, Splunk is ranked as a "Visionary" in Gartner's Magic Quadrant for the Application Performance Monitoring market. Additionally, Splunk was identified as a leader in the Cloud Observability market by GigaOM's Radar in 2022 and was recognized as one of the top players in The Forrester Wave for Security Analytics Platforms in 2020.

Gartner

In my view, Splunk has the most superior observability platform in the market and has established strong relationships with numerous large enterprise customers. This, in turn, should enable the company to sustain long-term growth and profitability. It's worth noting that Splunk entered the broader Observability market only within the last 12-14 months and was arguably a late entrant. Nevertheless, the company has successfully leveraged its customer and channel partner relationships and appears to be in a favorable position to lead the wider Observability market.

Splunk's Log Management solution has always been highly regarded and is widely used by organizations worldwide. I believe that Splunk's dominant position in the Log Management market is a significant factor in its reputation for having the best overall Observability platform, despite not being as highly ranked in APM or Application Security. Given its strong foothold in the Log Management market, Splunk should find it easier to cross-sell its other solutions to existing customers in the APM and Application Security markets.

Splunk has expanded its Observability platform through the acquisition of companies like SignalFX, Plumbr, and Rigor, which have provided capabilities in cloud infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, and digital experience management, respectively. Despite being a relatively new entrant in the Observability market, Splunk is making progress in selling its offerings in the Infrastructure Monitoring and Application Security segments.

SPLK's Investor Presentation

Splunk's has been successful in operating its gross margin over the past few years due to two main factors: 1) increasing cloud gross margin, and 2) cost-cutting measures. Over the past few years, Splunk's cloud gross margin has steadily improved due to greater scale and efficiency, rising from about 50% in early 2019 to 83% in F4Q23. Management anticipates that the cloud gross margin will continue to increase largely due to the platform's elasticity and increased scale. I believe that the growth of the cloud gross margin is a major driver behind the potential expansion of Splunk's operating margin.

Splunk made some positive changes to its business model, which had a favorable impact on the financials in the past three years. However, due to the increasing proportion of cloud bookings, the company started missing guidance in early FY21, and revenue growth declined for three consecutive quarters. The operating margin also turned negative, and the stock started declining after reaching a peak in 3Q21. Despite a number of management changes, including the resignation of CEO Doug Merritt and two Presidents, Splunk has exceeded the high-end of guidance for the next six consecutive quarters under the leadership of new CEO Gary Steele. Although revenue growth improved, the stock valuation has continued to decline. The stock is currently trading at just 4.5x EV/CY24E Sales, even though revenue growth is normalizing. I believe the stock's valuation is extremely depressed at current levels, and hence I view SPLK as a long-term buy.

Ycharts

Splunk is currently shifting its customers towards a subscription-based SaaS model, which may lead to fluctuations in revenue and require significant investments that could affect profitability and cash flow in the short term. This transition also makes the company more reliant on annual renewals to achieve revenue and profitability targets in the future. Additionally, Splunk's business is vulnerable to unfavorable changes in the global economic and political landscape, such as political instability or weak economic conditions, which could lead to a decrease in IT spending among existing and potential customers.

Splunk is a highly competitive observability platform with strong ties to many large enterprise clients, which should lead to sustainable long-term growth and profitability. The company's revenue growth is stabilizing after several years of changes, which should have a positive effect on its valuation. Additionally, as revenue growth normalizes, operating margins are likely to expand due to increased cloud gross margins and new initiatives to reduce expenses, which remains a catalyst for an upside in the stock price.

Splunk to Present at the BofA Securities 2023 Global Technology Conference

SAN FRANCISCO, June 01, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLK), the cybersecurity and observability leader, today announced its upcoming participation at the BofA Securities 2023 Global Technology Conference in San Francisco, CA.

Gary Steele, President and CEO, and Brian Roberts, CFO, will host a discussion and Q&A session beginning at 2:00 p.m. PT on Wednesday, June 7, 2023. Interested parties may access a live webcast of the session via the Splunk Investor Relations website at https://investors.splunk.com.

About Splunk Inc.

Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLK) helps build a safer and more resilient digital world. Organizations trust Splunk to prevent security, infrastructure and application issues from becoming major incidents, absorb shocks from digital disruptions, and accelerate digital transformation.

Splunk, Splunk>, and Turn Data Into Doing are trademarks and registered trademarks of Splunk Inc. in the United States and other countries. All other brand names, product names, or trademarks belong to their respective owners. © 2023 Splunk Inc. All rights reserved.

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Contacts

Media ContactPatricia HoganSplunk Inc.press@splunk.com

Investor ContactKatie WhiteSplunk Inc.ir@splunk.com